Fantasy Fishing: Momentum factor at Wheeler

That said, there should still be some bass on beds, some still moving up to spawn and some even in a post-spawn transition. With weather forecasts calling for rain on Thursday and Sunday and sunny skies on Friday and Saturday, both power fishing and sight fishing should play a role in the final outcome.

The other big wildcard for the tournament will be current and river levels. Anglers will be at the mercy of the Tennessee Valley Authority and it will likely take some on-the-fly adjustments to stay consistent when conditions change through the week. Aside from a sure bets like seasoned, power-fishing pros Kevin VanDam and Skeet Reese, Wheeler Lake should fish wide open.

The great equalizer is the Decatur Flats. Easily the most popular area for tournament anglers, it can often be hard to predict which handful out of the hordes will be successful in that area. Often, a subtle contour line or small bait adjustments makes the difference between a tournament-winning bag and a small limit.

Limits should be plentiful, but as in 2008, a few four-pound-plus fish can propel an angler into the top-50 cut, while the lack of a solid kicker will have anglers mired towards the bottom of the field. Even a favorite like Timmy Horton struggled in 2008. After boating a big Day One limit of 17 pounds, 6 ounces, he only managed to back that up with two smaller limits and missed the top-12 cut. Todd Faircloth had two 20-pound bags that year, but they were combined with two smaller limits that kept him from contending for the title.

With inconsistency the biggest worry, here are some top choices in a variety of categories for the Elite Series' third stop on Wheeler Lake:

Big Money Picks:

Timmy Horton — Combine Horton and shell beds and you get devastating results. For someone who managed to find a shell bed on Dardanelle and catch the big bass of the tournament, expect similar results on Wheeler. Only this time, he should actually contend for the title. The Muscle Shoals, Ala., pro is dangerous, especially on Wheeler and Guntersville. Add him now and ride him through the Tennessee River events.

Skeet Reese — Over the four-year history of the Elite Series, Skeet has been the model of consistency and high-performance with 13 top-12 finishes, a Bassmaster Classic championship and the 2007 Toyota Tundra Bassmaster Angler of the Year award. In 2008, Skeet just missed the cut at Wheeler, finishing in 14th place. Combine that with the fact that he is having a phenomenal year thus far, and he is becoming as much as a must-have as his counterpart KVD.

Alton Jones — Jones has quietly put together the best two years in his fishing career. The only thing he wants to top it off is the TTBAOY award at the end of this season. He has put himself in great shape, currently in second, just a few points behind KVD, and he will look to continue to make a run at Wheeler. He has a second-place finish in Decatur in March and can sight-fish with the best of them if the fish get on beds.

Bargain Pick:

Chris Lane — After taking a backseat to his brother Bobby in 2008, Lane is breaking through with a new mindset and comes into Wheeler fresh off a top-five finish on Lake Dardanelle. He missed the Classic last year and that was a big motivating factor that prompted this turnaround. He finished 24th here last year and is great at targeting fish in all phases of the spawn.

Risky Picks:

Marty Stone — Stone needs to recapture the magic of the 2005 tour season, when he finished second in the TTBAOY race to Aaron Martens after a nailbiting season finale at Table Rock Lake. That turnaround can start this week on Wheeler Lake, a place where Stone has won a tournament and performed consistently well each year. The gamble is he might have another lackluster performance, but if you are looking for an angler under 17 points that only .4 percent of fantasy owners have on their team, then Stone is the choice for you.

Rookie Pick:

Greg Vinson — Your best bet from the rookie class is probably Matt Herren, who is just starting to get into his stride, but don't count out Vinson either. An Alabama native and coming off a great tournament at Dardanelle, expect him to make the right adjustments at Wheeler. Momentum counts for something and Vinson is riding high — after experiencing his first taste of top-12 limelight, he wants more.

KVD Watch:

VanDam's fantasy points are slowly creeping higher and higher as the year goes on. There are already 55 percent of fantasy teams that have KVD on them, but for the other 45 percent, you either need to get him now or you obviously aren't even updating your team. In case you hadn't done any snooping, the top five in BASS Fantasy Fishing all have KVD on their teams, so why don't you? All the forces of fishing are about to meet in Decatur as KVD approaches absolutely on fire, with Wheeler history on his side and being a general destroyer of all things on the Tennessee River.

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